Wednesday, 2 October 2013


Scenario 1: The whole population of North, Central and South America moves to Asia.
Scenario 2: The whole of China moves to Africa
Scenario 3: The United States' population moves to Nigeria

These are the nightmare scenarios equivalent to what will happen to the World  if growing population trends continue at the current state.

Forget about global warming, climate change, energy starvation. Nothing any policy or politician will do will be enough with a population of nearly 10 billion forecast for 2050. These latest figures are from a French Institute but we've been there before with the UN report last June, and the maths match.
A culture shift is needed more than anything else we think is worrying us now.
The fight for resources, food, water is going to dictate the political scene. It seems an alien concept to us Europeans as the trend here is negative, with an ageing rather than growing population. And yet we worry about terrorism and the rising cost of energy. Energy comes primarily from exactly those countries more affected by overcrowding.
Nigeria is sent to go from the current 175m to 444m, and with political and cultural wars already in full swing, it's not bound to get any better. India will overtake China as the most populous country in the world, from 1.27 billion to 1.65 billion, as China finally slows down, due perhaps to improved wealth.
Pakistan is also predicted to almost double, and as it is already rife with tribal conflicts, that's another extremely worrying factor in the future of that region.
Population trend from 1000 CE to forecast in 2100 CE, source:
Religious leaders need to embrace calls for birth control, women need to be respected and given more independence and choices. The economy plays its part too. But politics goes as far as the next election so I don't expect anyone will act on population growth or climate change until it's too late and the damage is irreversible. I would love to be proved wrong on that assessment.

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