INNSBRUCK 2018 - ELITE MEN RR PREVIEW

This year’s course for the World Championships in Austria is one of the hardest ever. With 260km (162mi) of racing and a whopping 4,670 metres (15,320 ft) of gained altitude, it is designed for the climbers. The finish could be compared to the Giro di Lombardia’s (autumn classic) and the overall climbing to that of Liege-Bastogne-Liege's (spring classic), but it is unique in the relentless pursuit of pain and concentration, with punishing climbs and breakneck descending.

The race starts in the town of Kufstein and it winds south-westerly along the River Inn. There are three lumps almost from the off and they will be the springboards for teams and riders who have no hope to win but are eager to showcase their abilities in a breakaway. The first proper test comes after about 65km (40mi), over the Gnadenwald: a short climb of 2.6km (1.6mi) with an average gradient of 13%, which will be used in the individual time trial as well.

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On the other side, Innsbruck, with its 6 laps of 24km (15mi) each and the ascent of Igls, an 8km (5mi) climb averaging 5.7% but with peaks of 10%.

www.innsbruck-tirol2018.com

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The seventh and last lap is longer (31km - 19mi), with one final attempt at Igls and an added climb, the Höttinger Höll, the sting in the tail: 2.8km (1.7mi) averaging 11.5%, and a max gradient of 25%. The final attack is expected to happen here from a small selection of riders.

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The descent from the Höll and the subsequent run to the finish line are sinuous and technical. The best bike handlers will have the greatest chance of glory (see Nibali, Roglič and Bardet).
Given the nature of the course, it is likely that not many riders will finish. Each lap will see a number of cyclists peel off after having performed their duties as it’s always the case at the World Championships, but more so on such a demanding course.

Although it is a climbers’ fest, ironically many of them are not at the top of their game (Aru, Uran, Quintana, Nibali, Zakarin) or simply are not participating for either health reasons or lack of form (Froome, Porte, Thomas, Landa). Almost all of the on-form climbers are not particularly good at one-day racing (Dumoulin, Pinot, Mollema). However, there are plenty of riders who could clinch the title with panache and a bit of luck.

Valverde: the evergreen Spaniard is an old hack at this type of racing and has shown great form at the Vuelta. His team is super-strong and has depth. They haven't often seen eye to eye but if they do work together, they have options.

Simon Yates: although not a one-day specialist, he’s on a high from winning his first Grand Tour and his climbing abilities are second to none;
Bardet: the diminutive Frenchman has plenty of climbing power and handling skills and although not a winning classics rider, he has performed well enough to be a major threat.

Dan Martin: Dan was finally starting to produce the form shown in the past. He has classics wins under his belt, in this kind of terrain and was performing well at the Tour de France.

Nibali: since his crash at the Tour, the Italian has struggled to gain pace, but like at Milan-Sanremo, when he surprised everyone after a muted start of the season, he can come to life if the circumstances are right. He has a strong team as well.

Moscon: the young Italian would be the most unpopular world champion in the history of the sport. In the last two years, he has been the protagonist of unsavoury behaviour and a few suspensions. He is a strong rider though and he is showing the best form, recently beating the likes of Bardet and Pozzovivo.

Roglič: one of the best riders of 2018. He is a stage racer but has shown an acute eagerness for a victory that might end up surprising everyone with a final attack over the Höll.

Kwiatkowski: the Pole was fading throughout the Vuelta but he knows how to win a hard classic. If the pace is not prohibitive, he could end up with his second rainbow jersey.

Alaphilippe: his season has been a dream. The Frenchman won left, right and centre. He’s eager and he’s happy. Although he won the mountain points classification at the Tour de France, these climbs could be too much even for him... you never know.

Plenty of other riders could be in the mix, given the right circumstances:

Clarke (Australia);

Woods (Canada);

Lopez, Quintana, Uran (Colombia);

Mas, Soler (Spain);

Pinot, Gallopin (France);

Adam Yates (Great Britain);

Schachmann (Germany);

Jungels (Luxembourg);

Dumoulin, Kelderman, Kruijswijk, Poels, Mollema (The Netherlands);

King (USA);

Mohoric (Slovenia);

Valgren (Denmark);
Wellens (Belgium);

and why not, given the home rule advantage, Konrad and Pöstlberger (Austria).

Even the best might find it hard to operate well together (or even get the proper support) from teammates they only work with once a year in their national colours. The Dutch, the Spanish, the Colombians, the Italians, and the French teams are, on paper, the strongest for the win.

But one-day racing like this and with this unusual mix of teams can spring up surprises until the very end.

At the time of writing, the weather forecast is for a clear and dry day with a top temperature of 20°C (68°F): ideal conditions for it. Of course, it’s in the mountains, so it can all rapidly change and become a major factor in the outcome of the race.